The Russian Basket

To invite Putin to be the chief guest at the Republic Day celebrations was taken months ago immediately after the visit of Bush to India. Our way of hyphenating our relations with Russia and the US.


B. Raman

President Vladimir Putin of Russia is in India from January 24 to 27, 2007, on his fourth visit since he took over as the President. He will be the chief guest at the celebrations of India's Republic Day on January 26. This is an unique honour, which has never been extended to any US President.

The decision of the government of India to invite Putin to be the chief guest this year was taken months ago immediately after the visit of US President George Bush to India in March last. This was our way of hyphenating our relations with Russia and the US. This was a gesture meant to convey a message to Moscow as well as the Indian Communists whose support is important for the continued survival of the coalition government headed by Dr. Manmohan Singh in power. The message is that India's steadily improving relations with the US would not be at the expense of its relations with Russia.

It would be interesting to compare the prevailing atmosphere in the hours before the arrival of Putin in India with the atmosphere before the arrival of Bush in India in March last and during his stay in India. The excitement over Putin's visit was confined to the policy-making circles, the national security managers, the communists and other leftists and the media. The kind of excitement that one saw in public before and during Bush's visit, one does not find now with the arrival of Putin. The man in the street, unless he be a communist or other leftist, cares a damn for Russia, but he is fascinated by the US.

A public opinion poll taken before the visit of Bush showed how popular he was with the Indian public. Bush's public opinion rating in India would continue to be high if a poll was again taken today. There has not been any public opinion poll of Putin, but it is doubtful whether he would come anywhere near Bush.

Despite this lack-lustre image of Russia and Putin in the eyes of the man in the street, Russia continues to evoke greater admiration in the minds of India's policy-makers and national security managers than the US. Were Dr. Manmohan Singh to order a secret poll of serving and retired public servants—including military officers and scientists— on his increasing bonhomie with the US and Bush, one can be certain that a majority will express reservations over the wisdom of his policies and actions.

What is true of the man in the street in India is equally true of the man in the street in Russia. Today's man in the street in Russia cares a damn for India. He is more interested in the European Union and the US. The man in the street in the US shows more warmth for India than the man in the street in Russia. The continuing interest in India in Russia is confined to its community of public servants and strategic analysts.

The comfort level between Indian public servants and their Russian counterparts continues to be high. Indian public servants do not feel as comfortable with their American counterparts



Once bitten always shy. Indian public servants have too many painful memories of the innumerable occasions when they were bitten by the US—-right from the day India became independent in 1947: How the US tried to obstruct the development of heavy industries! How President John Kennedy was thwarted by the US Congress when he wanted to help India in the construction of a steel plant at Bokharo! How the US repudiated its solemn contractual commitments with regard to the nuclear power station at Tarapore after India carried out its nuclear tests of 1974! How the US tried to prevent India from acquiring a super computer for its meteorological department! How the US, even while pretending to co-operate with the Indian intelligence agencies, penetrated them again and again at senior levels and bought the loyalty of their senior officers and made them betray their country! Even while professing great friendship for India and admiration for Dr. Manmohan Singh, how the US penetrated India's National Security Council Secretariat, which is part of the Prime Minister's Office! How it has been repeatedly giving one arms package after another to Pakistan adding to the concerns of India's national security managers! How it declined to support India's candidacy for the permanent membership of the UN Security Council! How it preferred a compliant South Korean diplomat to Shashi Tharoor for the post of UN Secretary-General! One can go on adding to the list.


Can you cite a single instance since our independence when the USSR or Russia had betrayed India and its people? It has stood by us through thick and thin. It has never hesitated to meet any of our requests for arms supplies. It has repeatedly spurned Pakistan's request for military sales. It has refused to permit Ukraine to sell to Pakistan an advanced tank, whose engine was of Russian make. It has been reluctant to permit China to sell Pakistan a military aircraft with a Russian engine. It has repeatedly assured India that it would not sell to Pakistan any military equipment which might cause concern to India's national security managers. The Indian intelligence community has had a relationship of much longer duration with its Soviet/Russian counterpart than with the US intelligence community. How many instances have been there where the Soviet/Russian intelligence betrayed the trust reposed by us in them and tried to penetrate our intelligence agencies at senior levels? How Moscow went ahead with the implementation of its agreement for the supply of the Koodankulam nuclear power stations despite strong pressure from the Clinton Administration to abandon the agreement just as the US abandoned the Tarapore agreement! One can go on adding to this list too.

It is, therefore, no wonder that despite all the sweet talk between Bush and Manmohan Singh and the new found fascination of large sections of the New Delhi-based community of strategic analysts for the US, large sections of Indian public servants—serving as well as retired— continue to have a greater comfort level with Russia than with the US. This does not mean that the relations between India and Russia would continue to be as close as ever for years and years. Just as in India, so too in Russia, a new generation of public servants is rising to positions of influence. It has no time for nostalgic recall of the past. Its eyes are turned towards the future. For it, the future means closer relations with the EU and the US.

Putin completes his term in March, 2008. Unless he decides to amend the Constitution, he cannot continue for a third term. He has a special soft corner for India because of his past background as a professional intelligence officer of the KGB.Many ex-officers of the KGB have a soft corner for India just as many ex-CIA officers of the US have a soft corner for Pakistan. If he is succeeded by someone not connected with the past administrations in Moscow, the new incumbent may not attach the same importance to India as Putin did.

The Russian basket continues to be very valuable for us. We feel comfortable putting most—if not all—of our eggs in it. We should not, however, lose sight of the fact that a day might come when we may like to shift some of our eggs to some other basket. Our relationships with the EU and the US are multi-dimensional. Our relationship with Russia is largely three-dimensional—military and energy supplies and political support in matters affecting our national security. They are unlikely to expand beyond those three dimensions.


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B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical studies, Chennai.