The Indian prime minister, Manmohan Singh, will visit Pakistan early next year. It is thought that his visit might result in some forward movement on Kashmir in the light of some sensitive back channel talk. The recommendations ‘on the table’ point to ‘joint consultative mechanisms’ that would allow both governments to explore mutual cooperation and consultation between the two Kashmirs. Mr Singh has already made it clear that there would be no changes in territory and all solutions would have to be on the basis of the current map. Now he is said to have given the go-ahead to ‘begin a dialogue with the people in their areas of control to improve the quality of governance to give people on both sides a greater chance of leading a life of dignity and self respect, as well as the setting up of consultative mechanisms to maximise the gains of cooperation in the social, economic and political spheres’. This takes us in the direction of ‘internal self-determination with maximum internal autonomy on either side’ in both Kashmirs. The ‘mechanisms’ to be discussed will presumably keep the two Kashmirs in their old positions within India and Pakistan but bound together by ‘mutual cooperation’.
One must normally suppose that the two sides have already arrived at some kind of common ground where to reach an agreement. On the face of it, the proposal — said to be based on recommendations made by some retired Indian diplomats — is realistic and tends to put trade and economic relations on high priority as a solvent of a dispute that has defied all past approaches. It is worth serious consideration and Pakistan must do all in its power to make India move ahead on it.
India knows that President Pervez Musharraf is the first leader of Pakistan to: (a) opt for self-governance in preference to self-determination which implies a change of borders; (b) keep the UN resolutions aside; (c) give up the options of plebiscite as well as that of independence; (d) desist from demanding any territory for Pakistan; (e) reject the communal criteria; (f) not demand Kashmir’s secession from India; and (g) encourage Kashmiris to talk to New Delhi. This is no mean offering.
For the first time the people of Pakistan are ready to see an end to jihad in exchange for an economic solution. In India too the people would welcome a denouement that hurts no one while bringing prosperity to the people of Kashmir on both sides. The LoC — not acceptable to Pakistan as a border — will therefore be transformed as a result of opening of trade routes, not only between two Kashmirs but between Indian-held Kashmir and India itself via Pakistan!
It would be a wonderfully lucky strike if India and Pakistan should arrive at common ground over President Musharraf’s rather courageous one-sided formulations on autonomy and self-governance. Lucky, because the bureaucracies of India and Pakistan have not seriously pondered the essence of what he has been saying and therefore no variations on the theme have emanated from his brave effort except a lot of snobbish dismissal of the thoughts of a transitional figure. At first, he discussed demilitarisation of Kashmir after the two sides agree to the self governance formula — a la Northern Ireland formula — but later, when he found India non-committal, he put demilitarisation before the execution of the formula.
Why shouldn’t the Indian prime minister accept the formula? Secession of Kashmir is not involved. It borrows from the two past models — Aaland and South Tyrol — offering mutual guarantees of autonomy while confirming existing sovereignties. When a senior diplomat floated the idea of the Northern Ireland model in New Delhi in 2004, hawks in Pakistan thought it was ‘Europe thrusting their views on Pakistan’ but today it may suit Pakistan to discuss Kashmir with India on the lines suggested by President Musharraf.
No one in South Asia has much hope left in the ability of India and Pakistan to solve a problem that has hung fire for decades and has killed thousands of innocent people and introduced society on both sides to terrorism. The insurgency in Indian-held Kashmir has gone down a bit (while unfortunately spreading to other parts of India just like Pakistan) and the world is leaning on them to cut this umbilical cord that binds freedom-fighters to terrorists. If Mr Singh wants to shake the reputation of being ineffective and if President Musharraf wants to justify his overstay in power, a new leaf must be turned on Kashmir. *
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